Singapore · SGP · snapshot 2026-08-16

The Singapore dollar is not weakening, and the entry cost is 60%

Reviewed

Changing this hides rules written for a different asset class rather than leaving you to notice. With JavaScript off you see all of them, each labelled.
  1. Currency movement

    -1.4%

    Period
    2025-07-01 to 2026-07-01
    Geography
    National
    Asset class
    Applies to any asset priced in this currency
    Source
    European Central Bank reference rates
    We may
    Published and reusable, with attribution

    The local currency bought more euros at the end of this window than at the start — a more expensive entry for a euro-denominated buyer, and a better exit for anyone already holding the asset.

    What it does not show. It is not a forecast and not a property return. A currency move and a price move are different facts and routinely point opposite ways; nothing here says which way either is going next.

  2. Foreign-buyer rules

    3 of 3 published rules apply

    Period
    Each rule carries its own retrieval date
    Geography
    National unless the rule states otherwise
    Asset class
    3 of these govern housing only
    Source
    The issuing authority for each rule, cited individually
    We may
    Public legal instruments, quoted with their citation

    These are the restrictions a foreign buyer meets before price is even discussed — approval regimes, surcharges, ownership limits.

    What it does not show. It is not a completeness claim. A rule we have not read is not a rule that does not exist, and this row counts what is cited, not what is in force.

  3. Cost of money

    Not measured

    Singapore has no policy-rate target to publish. The Monetary Authority of Singapore runs an exchange-rate-centred regime, so the absence here is a fact about the regime rather than a gap in the data.

  4. Supply against absorption

    0.75 sold per launched, Core Central Region

    Period
    2025-07 to 2026-04
    Geography
    Core Central Region, market segment
    Asset class
    Private residential units not yet built
    Source
    Urban Redevelopment Authority via data.gov.sg
    We may
    Publishable here and in paid work, with attribution

    Below one, developers are putting more on the market than buyers are committing to, and the unsold pipeline is growing.

    What it does not show. It is not a completions figure and must not be read beside one. These are homes that do not exist yet: a unit counted here may be occupied in three years or abandoned at excavation, and the sale is a commitment rather than a move-in. It is also not a price signal.

  5. Residential price cycle

    Not measured

    Singapore is not an area in the OECD analytical house prices dataflow. The layer is absent rather than empty, and no proxy has been substituted.

  6. Valuation against its own history

    Not measured

    Singapore is not an area in the OECD analytical house prices dataflow. The layer is absent rather than empty, and no proxy has been substituted.

  7. On the market now

    Not measured

    No listings platform has been read for this market. The one platform this site can read covers Russian cities only, and inventing a count for anywhere else would be worse than an empty row.

Thesis

The stated reason for looking at Singapore was a depreciating currency. On the data, that is not what is happening. Against the euro the Singapore dollar strengthened 1.4% over the twelve months to July 2026, moving from 1.4960 to 1.4746 per euro on ECB monthly reference averages. Whatever case exists for Singapore, it is not a currency-window case, and building an entry thesis on one would be building it on a fact that is not true.

Counter-thesis

Rejecting the currency reason does not reject the market. Singapore is a common destination for capital leaving a weakening home currency, and that is a different and coherent motive: the buyer is not seeking a discount, they are seeking a currency and a jurisdiction they expect to hold value. A strong Singapore dollar is an argument for that thesis, not against it. What defeats the naive version is not the currency at all — it is the entry cost.

The series behind those figures, and the workings

Currency

-1.4%

Twelve-month move in SGD per euro, 1.4960 in 2025-07 to 1.4746 in 2026-07. Positive means the local currency weakened. Source: European Central Bank monthly reference averages.

1.4784

Latest daily fixing, SGD per euro on 2026-08-14. Shown because it is what a reader would see if they went and looked; the window above uses monthly averages, which one volatile day cannot move.

Against other base currencies

A market is cheap or dear relative to the capital entering it, so the same twelve months read differently depending on what the buyer holds. Both legs are quoted per euro, so the euro cancels and no third source is involved.

Buyer holdsSGD per unit, 2025-07SGD per unit, 2026-07Twelve-month move
US dollar (USD)1.28121.2916+0.8%
Pound sterling (GBP)1.73011.7269-0.2%
Swiss franc (CHF)1.60441.5932-0.7%
Australian dollar (AUD)0.83750.8994+7.4%

Supply against absorption

One layer, and deliberately not one number. Canada counts dwellings that exist and asks whether anyone moved in; Singapore counts homes that do not exist yet and asks whether anyone has agreed to buy them. Both answer “is what arrives being taken up”, and neither is comparable with the other, so each is labelled by what it actually counted.

Launched against sold

Private residential units that are not built yet, by market segment. Below 1 means developers put more on the market than buyers committed to, and the unsold pipeline grew.

AreaLaunchedSoldSold per launchedWindow to
Core Central Region3,2232,4090.752026-04
Outside Central Region4,3374,3010.992026-04
Rest of Central Region2,8903,5881.242026-04

Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority via data.gov.sg.

Unsold, and already approved

Private residential units that hold planning approval and have not been sold, as at 2026-04. This is the stock behind the balance above: it is what the pipeline is carrying, not what it is selling. A segment can look calm on launches and still be holding years of approved supply.

Market segmentUnsold units with approval
Core Central Region5,504
Outside Central Region5,156
Rest of Central Region4,397

Background

Annual national statistics from the World Bank, under a licence that permits reuse with attribution. They describe the country; they do not time an entry, and they are not counted as measurements of this market — otherwise every territory on earth would claim to be measured on the strength of one dataset.

IndicatorValueYear
GDP per capita98,814 US$2025
Consumer price inflation0.9 %2025
Population6,111,1752025
Urban population100.0 % of total2025
Official exchange rate1.3075 per US$2025

What the rules do to a foreign buyer

Each entry cites the instrument and the authority page it was read from, with the date it was retrieved. Facts of law change; the retrieval date is how you know how old this reading is.

TopicIn forceWhen it bitesApplies toWhat appliesInstrumentRead on
Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty for foreign buyersIn forceNot stated by the sourceOn the way inResidential onlyA foreign buyer of residential property pays Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty of 60% of the purchase price or market value, whichever is higher. This is in addition to Buyer's Stamp Duty.Stamp Duties Act 1929 (Singapore), ABSD2026-08-10
Purchases held on trustIn forceNot stated by the sourceOn the way inResidential onlyA transfer of residential property to a trustee to hold on trust is charged ABSD (Trust) at 65%, payable upfront, with any remission claimed by refund within six months of execution.Stamp Duties Act 1929 (Singapore), ABSD (Trust)2026-08-10
Free trade agreement treatmentIn forceNot stated by the sourceOn the way inResidential onlyNationals of certain countries with a free trade agreement with Singapore are accorded the same ABSD treatment as a Singapore citizen; IRAS gives a United States citizen as a worked example. Which nationalities qualify materially changes the entry cost and must be checked per buyer.Stamp Duties Act 1929 (Singapore), ABSD remission under FTA2026-08-10

What is missing, and why

valuationSource does not cover this market

The dataset simply does not include this territory. Absent, not zero.

Singapore is not an area in the OECD analytical house prices dataflow. The layer is absent rather than empty, and no proxy has been substituted.

financingSource does not cover this market

The dataset simply does not include this territory. Absent, not zero.

Singapore has no policy-rate target to publish. The Monetary Authority of Singapore runs an exchange-rate-centred regime, so the absence here is a fact about the regime rather than a gap in the data.

What supports this, what would make it wrong, and how it could go

What supports this

  • Singapore dollars per euro moved 1.4960 → 1.4746 between the July 2025 and July 2026 monthly averages (ECB reference rates), a 1.4% strengthening of the Singapore dollar.
  • The latest daily fixing on 7 August 2026 was 1.4775 per euro, consistent with the monthly series.
  • Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty for a foreign buyer of residential property is 60% of price or market value, verified against the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore on 10 August 2026.
  • Holding through a trust does not avoid it: ABSD (Trust) is charged at 65%.

What would make this wrong

  • The Singapore dollar begins depreciating against the buyer's base currency, which would make the original currency thesis testable again on new data.
  • ABSD rates or the free-trade-agreement remissions change; the 60% figure is a policy setting and has moved several times.
  • The buyer holds a nationality with FTA treatment, in which case the 60% entry cost does not apply to them and the whole arithmetic changes.
  • The exposure sought is not residential — the ABSD regime is specific to residential property and says nothing about other asset classes.

Outcome branches

  • A foreign buyer without FTA treatment buys residential property60% of the purchase price is paid as ABSD on entry, before any other cost. The asset must outperform by that margin before the buyer is level.
  • The buyer's motive is capital shelter rather than entry discountThe strong currency supports the motive, and the question becomes whether the 60% entry cost is a price worth paying for the jurisdiction, which is a decision and not a data point.
  • The buyer qualifies for FTA treatmentEntry cost falls to citizen-equivalent treatment and Singapore becomes a materially different proposition. This turns on nationality and must be confirmed individually.

Record

Why this market is on the listConfirmed inbound demand (2026-08) attributed to currency weakness. Selected as P1 by the ADR-0003 §5 depth queue specifically because the stated reason is testable and, on the data, fails — recorded in ADR-0010 §9.
DossierApproved by founder on 2026-08-10
Next review2026-11-10
Evidence snapshot2026-08-16